10/10/2008 Stock Market bottom?

Written at 9:47 AM ET 10/10/2008

The long holiday weekend couldn’t come at a better time.

It is time for everyone to come to grips with this thing with the market open and trading occurring, we lack perspective. With the 3 day weekend and regulators doing their best to work out the problem, we could be at the turning point. In my opinion, we are.

This is about psychology.

  • The weather is supposed to be beautiful in the northeast. Believe it or not, that will make a difference. People will gain some perspective about what is really important in life. Family, friends, etc.
  • The 3 day holiday will give regulators time to be rational and hash things out and possibly Instill some confidence into the commercial paper market. Money needs to flow again.
  • GE came out with earnings and instilled a little bit of confidence in discussing the fact that commercial paper is available. Sure they are the most blue of the blue chippers, but it needs to start somewhere.
  • Bad, bad, bad news priced in. Don’t get me wrong, our economy is on the skids. My feeling is that most of that is priced in for the most part. Earnings season will come and companies will be given a lot of leeway in terms of missing any guidance. This has happened many times in the past and we will see relief when companies don’t miss as bad as expected.
  • Buyers will arrive (probably a combination of foreign funds/US investment management… KKR, Blackstone, etc.). With prices where they are, now is the time to be a buyer. Assets are cheap, cash is king.

Again, I believe the economy will be bad, companies will go away, new markets will be formed, unemployment will be high…. But, buyers with cash will benefit. Where is the automatic retirement deposit money going? Where are the automatic monthly investment plan dollars going? There will be enough buying to sustain the market at certain levels. I think we are there.

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